- Oil prices continued to plunge in November and into early December. The selloff gained pace after OPEC on 27 November decided to keep its output target unchanged. ICE Brent was last trading at a five-year low of $64.05/bbl, down more than 40% from June, and NYMEX WTI at $60.45/bbl.
- The outlook for global oil demand growth for 2015 has been cut by 230 kb/d to 0.9 mb/d on lower expectations for the FSU and other oil-exporting countries. A strong dollar and the lifting of subsidies have so far limited supportive price effects on demand, which is now seen reaching 93.3 mb/d next year, from 92.4 mb/d in 2014.
- Global production fell by 340 kb/d in November to 94.1 mb/d on lower OPEC supplies. Annual gains of 2.1 mb/d were split evenly between OPEC and non-OPEC. Surging US light tight oil supply looks set to push total non-OPEC production to record growth of 1.9 mb/d this year, but the pace is expected to slow to 1.3 mb/d in 2015.
- OPEC crude supply declined by 315 kb/d in November to 30.32 mb/d after Libya’s recovery stumbled, but stood 765 kb/d higher year-on-year. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2015 has been revised down by 300 kb/d to 28.9 mb/d. The ‘call’ is expected to decline seasonally by 1.2 mb/d from 4Q14 to 1Q15.
- Global refinery crude throughputs bounced back in November from a seasonal low of 76.8 mb/d in October. The estimate of 4Q14 throughputs has been revised sharply higher since the last Report, to 78 mb/d, as refiners apparently took advantage of healthy margins ahead of a flurry of refinery start-ups expected in early 2015.
- OECD industry stocks built counter-seasonally in October to 2 720 mb, their highest level in more than two years. Stocks ended at a surplus to their five-year average for the first time since March 2013. Rising crude supply and peak seasonal refinery maintenance saw crude stocks surge by 34.4 mb and product stocks fall by 30.7 mb.
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